First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) X: Environmental Galaxy Bias and Survey Variance at High Redshift

Upcoming deep galaxy surveys with JWST will probe galaxy evolution during the epoch of reionisation (EoR, $5\leq z\leq10$) over relatively compact areas (e.g. $\sim$ 300\,arcmin$^2$ for the JADES GTO survey). It is therefore imperative that we understand the degree of survey variance, to evaluate how representative the galaxy populations in these studies will be. We use the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) to measure the galaxy bias of various tracers over an unprecedentedly large range in overdensity for a hydrodynamic simulation, and use these relations to assess the impact of bias and clustering on survey variance in the EoR. Star formation is highly biased relative to the underlying dark matter distribution, with the mean ratio of the stellar to dark matter density varying by a factor of 100 between regions of low and high matter overdensity (smoothed on a scale of 14\,$h^{-1}$cMpc). This is reflected in the galaxy distribution -- the most massive galaxies are found solely in regions of high overdensity. As a consequence of the above, galaxies in the EoR are highly clustered, which can lead to large variance in survey number counts. For mean number counts $N\lesssim 100$ (1000), in a unit redshift slice of angular area 300\,arcmin$^2$ (1.4\,deg$^2$), the 2-sigma range in $N$ is roughly a factor of four (two). We present relations between the expected variance and survey area for different survey geometries; these relations will be of use to observers wishing to understand the impact of survey variance on their results.Comment: 14 pages, 17 figures. Paper 10 in the First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) serie

First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) - VI. The colour evolution of galaxies z=5-15

With its exquisite sensitivity, wavelength coverage, and spatial and spectral resolution, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is poised to revolutionize our view of the distant, high-redshift (z > 5) Universe. While Webb's spectroscopic observations will be transformative for the field, photometric observations play a key role in identifying distant objects and providing more comprehensive samples than accessible to spectroscopy alone. In addition to identifying objects, photometric observations can also be used to infer physical properties and thus be used to constrain galaxy formation models. However, inferred physical properties from broad-band photometric observations, particularly in the absence of spectroscopic redshifts, often have large uncertainties. With the development of new tools for forward modelling simulations, it is now routinely possible to predict observational quantities, enabling a direct comparison with observations. With this in mind, in this work, we make predictions for the colour evolution of galaxies at z = 5-15 using the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (flares) cosmological hydrodynamical simulation suite. We predict a complex evolution with time, driven predominantly by strong nebular line emission passing through individual bands. These predictions are in good agreement with existing constraints from Hubble and Spitzer as well as some of the first results from Webb. We also contrast our predictions with other models in the literature: While the general trends are similar, we find key differences, particularly in the strength of features associated with strong nebular line emission. This suggests photometric observations alone should provide useful discriminating power between different models and physical states of galaxies.Peer reviewe

First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) VIII. The Emergence of Passive Galaxies at z⩾5z \geqslant 5

Passive galaxies are ubiquitous in the local universe, and various physical channels have been proposed that lead to this passivity. To date, robust passive galaxy candidates have been detected up to $z \leqslant 5$, but it is still unknown if they exist at higher redshifts, what their relative abundances are, and what causes them to stop forming stars. We present predictions from the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES), a series of zoom simulations of a range of overdensities using the EAGLE code. Passive galaxies occur naturally in the EAGLE model at high redshift, and are in good agreement with number density estimates from HST and early JWST results at $3 \leqslant z \leqslant 5$. Due to the unique FLARES approach, we extend these predictions to higher redshifts, finding passive galaxy populations up to $z \sim 8$. Feedback from supermassive black holes is the main driver of passivity, leading to reduced gas fractions and star forming gas reservoirs. We find that passive galaxies at $z \geqslant 5$ are not identified in the typical UVJ selection space due to their still relatively young stellar populations, and present new rest--frame selection regions. We also present NIRCam and MIRI fluxes, and find that significant numbers of passive galaxies at $z \geqslant 5$ should be detectable in upcoming wide surveys with JWST. Finally, we present JWST colour distributions, with new selection regions in the observer--frame for identifying these early passive populations.Comment: 21 pages, 20 figures. Accepted to MNRA

First light and reionization epoch simulations (FLARES) V : the redshift frontier

JWST is set to transform many areas of astronomy, one of the most exciting is the expansion of the redshift frontier to z > 10. In its first year, alone JWST should discover hundreds of galaxies, dwarfing the handful currently known. To prepare for these powerful observational constraints, we use the First Light And Reionization Epoch simulations (flares) to predict the physical and observational properties of the z > 10 population of galaxies accessible to JWST. This is the first time such predictions have been made using a hydrodynamical model validated at low redshift. Our predictions at z = 10 are broadly in agreement with current observational constraints on the far-UV luminosity function and UV continuum slope beta, though the observational uncertainties are large. We note tension with recent constraints z similar to 13 from Harikane et al. () - compared to these constraints, flares predicts objects with the same space density should have an order-of-magnitude lower luminosity, though this is mitigated slightly if dust attenuation is negligible in these systems. Our predictions suggest that in JWST's first cycle alone, around 600 galaxies should be identified at z > 10, with the first small samples available at z > 13.Peer reviewe

First Light And Reionization Epoch Simulations (FLARES) VII : The star formation and metal enrichment histories of galaxies in the early Universe

The star formation and metal enrichment histories of galaxies - at any epoch - constitute one of the key properties of galaxies, and their measurement is a core aim of observational extragalactic astronomy. The lack of deep rest-frame optical coverage at high redshift has made robust constraints elusive, but this is now changing thanks to JWST. In preparation for the constraints provided by JWST, we explore the star formation and metal enrichment histories of galaxies at z = 5-13 using the First Light And Reionization Epoch Simulations (FLARES) suite. Built on the EAGLE model, the unique strategy of FLARES allows us to simulate galaxies with a wide range of stellar masses (and luminosities) and environments. While we predict significant redshift evolution of average ages and specific star formation rates, our core result is mostly a flat relationship of age and specific star formation rate with stellar mass. We also find that galaxies in this epoch predominantly have strongly rising star formation histories, albeit with the normalization dropping with redshift and stellar mass. In terms of chemical enrichment, we predict a strong stellar mass-metallicity relation present at z = 10 and beyond alongside significant a-enhancement. Finally, we find no large-scale environmental dependence of the relationship between age, specific star formation rate, or metallicity with stellar mass.Peer reviewe

First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) XIV: The Balmer/4000~\AA\ Breaks of Distant Galaxies

With the successful launch and commissioning of JWST we are now able to routinely spectroscopically probe the rest-frame optical emission of galaxies at $z>6$ for the first time. Amongst the most useful spectral diagnostics used in the optical is the Balmer/4000~\AA\ break; this is, in principle, a diagnostic of the mean ages of composite stellar populations. However, the Balmer break is also sensitive to the shape of the star formation history, the stellar (and gas) metallicity, the presence of nebular continuum emission, and dust attenuation. In this work we explore the origin of the Balmer/4000~\AA\ break using the SYNTHESIZER synthetic observations package. We then make predictions of the Balmer/4000~\AA\ break using the First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) at $5<z<10$. We find that the average break strength weakly correlates with stellar mass and rest-frame far-UV luminosity, but that this is predominantly driven by dust attenuation. We also find that break strength provides a weak diagnostic of the age but performs better as a means to constrain star formation and stellar mass, alongside the UV and optical luminosity, respectively.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figures, submitted to MNRA

First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) XIII: the Lyman-continuum emission of high-redshift galaxies

The history of reionisation is highly dependent on the ionising properties of high-redshift galaxies. It is therefore important to have a solid understanding of how the ionising properties of galaxies are linked to physical and observable quantities. In this paper, we use the First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) to study the Lyman-continuum (LyC, i.e. hydrogen-ionising) emission of massive ($M_*>10^8\,\mathrm{M_\odot}$) galaxies at redshifts $z=5-10$. We find that the specific ionising emissivity (i.e. intrinsic ionising emissivity per unit stellar mass) decreases as stellar mass increases, due to the combined effects of increasing age and metallicity. FLARES predicts a median ionising photon production efficiency (i.e. intrinsic ionising emissivity per unit intrinsic far-UV luminosity) of $\log_{10}(\xi_{\rm ion}\rm{/erg^{-1}Hz})=25.40^{+0.16}_{-0.17}$, with values spanning the range $\log_{10}(\xi_{\rm ion}\rm{/erg^{-1}Hz})=25-25.75$. This is within the range of many observational estimates, but below some of the extremes observed. We compare the production efficiency with observable properties, and find a weak negative correlation with the UV-continuum slope, and a positive correlation with the OIII equivalent width. We also consider the dust-attenuated production efficiency (i.e. intrinsic ionising emissivity per unit dust-attenuated far-UV luminosity), and find a median of $\log_{10}(\xi_{\rm ion}\rm{/erg^{-1}Hz})\sim25.5$. Within our sample of $M_*>10^8\,\mathrm{M_\odot}$ galaxies, it is the stellar populations in low mass galaxies that contribute the most to the total ionising emissivity. Active galactic nuclei (AGN) emission accounts for $10-20$ % of the total emissivity at a given redshift, and extends the LyC luminosity function by $\sim0.5$ dex.Comment: 18 pages, 17 figures, submitted to MNRA

First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) XI: [OIII] emitting galaxies at 5<z<105<z<10

JWST has now made it possible to probe the rest-frame optical line emission of high-redshift galaxies extending to z~9, and potentially beyond. To aid in the interpretation of these emerging constraints, in this work we explore predictions for [OIII] emission in high-redshift galaxies using the First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES). We produce predictions for the [OIII] luminosity function, its correlation with the UV luminosity, and the distribution of equivalent widths (EWs). We also explore how the [OIII] EW correlates with physical properties including specific star formation rate, metallicity, and dust attenuation. Our predictions are largely consistent with recent observational constraints on the luminosity function, average equivalent widths, and line ratios. However, they fail to reproduce the observed tail of high-EW sources and the number density of extreme line emitters. Possibilities to explain these discrepancies include an additional source of ionising photons and/or greater stochasticity in star formation in the model or photometric scatter and/or bias in the observations. With JWST now rapidly building larger samples and a wider range of emission lines the answer to this remaining discrepancy should be available imminently.Comment: 15 pages, accepted for publication in MNRAS, minor changes from original versio

Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) survey: The colour evolution of galaxies in the distant Universe

The wavelength-coverage and sensitivity of JWST now enables us to probe the rest-frame UV - optical spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies at high-redshift ($z>4$). From these SEDs it is, in principle, through SED fitting possible to infer key physical properties, including stellar masses, star formation rates, and dust attenuation. These in turn can be compared with the predictions of galaxy formation simulations allowing us to validate and refine the incorporated physics. However, the inference of physical properties, particularly from photometry alone, can lead to large uncertainties and potential biases. Instead, it is now possible, and common, for simulations to be \emph{forward-modelled} to yield synthetic observations that can be compared directly to real observations. In this work, we measure the JWST broadband fluxes and colours of a robust sample of $5<z<10$ galaxies using the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) Survey. We then analyse predictions from a variety of models using the same methodology and compare the NIRCam/F277W magnitude distribution and NIRCam colours with observations. We find that the predicted and observed magnitude distributions are similar, at least at $58$ the distributions differ somewhat, though our observed sample size is small and thus susceptible to statistical fluctuations. Likewise, the predicted and observed colour evolution show broad agreement, at least at $5<z<8$. There is however some disagreement between the observed and modelled strength of the strong line contribution. In particular all the models fails to reproduce the F410M-F444W colour at $z>8$, though, again, the sample size is small here.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, submitted to MNRA

A Framework for the Development, Design and Implementation of a Sustained Arctic Ocean Observing System

Rapid Arctic warming drives profound change in the marine environment that have significant socio-economic impacts within the Arctic and beyond, including climate and weather hazards, food security, transportation, infrastructure planning and resource extraction. These concerns drive efforts to understand and predict Arctic environmental change and motivate development of an Arctic Region Component of the Global Ocean Observing System (ARCGOOS) capable of collecting the broad, sustained observations needed to support these endeavors. This paper provides a roadmap for establishing the ARCGOOS. ARCGOOS development must be underpinned by a broadly-endorsed framework grounded in high-level policy drivers and the scientific and operational objectives that stem from them. This should be guided by a transparent, internationally accepted governance structure with recognized authority and organizational relationships with the national agencies that ultimately execute network plans. A governance model for ARCGOOS must guide selection of objectives, assess performance and fitness-to-purpose, and advocate for resources. A requirements-based framework for an ARCGOOS begins with the Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs) that underpin the system. SBAs motivate investments and define the system's science and operational objectives. Objectives can then be used to identify key observables and their scope. The domains of planning/policy, strategy, and tactics define scope ranging from decades and basins to focused observing with near real time data delivery. Patterns emerge when this analysis is integrated across an appropriate set of SBAs and science/operational objectives, identifying impactful variables and the scope of the measurements. When weighted for technological readiness and logistical feasibility, this can be used to select Essential ARCGOOS Variables, analogous to Essential Ocean Variables of the Global Ocean Observing System. The Arctic presents distinct needs and challenges, demanding novel observing strategies. Cost, traceability and ability to integrate region-specific knowledge have to be balanced, in an approach that builds on existing and new observing infrastructure. ARCGOOS should benefit from established data infrastructures following the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reuseable Principles to ensure preservation and sharing of data and derived products. Linking to the Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON) process and involving Arctic stakeholders, for example through liaison with the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), can help ensure success